Stock up on canned goods. Build a bunker. Plan a one-way trip to Canada. Do whatever you need to do to prepare for a Donald J. Trump presidency.
A professor and historian who has correctly predicted the results of presidential elections for the past 30 years, Alan Litchman, recently forecasted a narrow Trump victory in November.
“Based on the 13 keys, it would predict a Donald Trump victory,” says Allan Lichtman, distinguished professor of history at American University in Washington, DC.
Using historical data, Lichtman has come up with what he calls the “Keys to the White House”—13 true or false statements that have accurately predicted the popular vote for every presidential election since 1984.
“‘The Keys to the White House’ is a historically based prediction system,” Lichtman told the Washington Post. “I derived the system by looking at every American presidential election from 1860 to 1980, and have since used the system to correctly predict the outcomes of all eight American presidential elections from 1984 to 2012.”
Each key is a factor that can determine whether the party in power will win or lose the White House. For example, party mandate. Does the party in power have more seats in the House of Representatives before or after the most recent midterm elections?
“[The democrats] got crushed,” said Lichtman, meaning that key goes to the republican nominee.
The incumbent president, Barack Obama, is not running. So that key also goes to Trump.
Hillary Clinton is not a charismatic figure or national hero. Advantage Trump.
In all, Trump wins six of the 13 keys, just enough to tip the prediction in his favor.
But! There’s a catch this year, Lichtman said.
Donald Trump has made this the most difficult election to assess since 1984. We have never before seen a candidate like Donald Trump, and Donald Trump may well break patterns of history that have held since 1860. We’ve never before seen a candidate who’s spent his life enriching himself at the expense of others. He’s the first candidate in our history to be a serial fabricator, making up things as he goes along… Given all of these exceptions that Donald Trump represents, he may well shatter patterns of history that have held for more than 150 years, lose this election even if the historical circumstances favor it.
This does not mean automatically and support me as a professor or university where I work, “was the categorical Ličman.